The US Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday. But two officials wanted a hike now. Markets still expect a hike in December — and that matters for the rupee and gold.
Updated: 29 October 2026, 10:00 IST
Quick Read:
- The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October 2026, in a 10–2 vote.
- Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented. Both wanted a 0.25-point hike now.
- A December hike is a market expectation, not a Fed decision yet. Futures put the chance near 83%–85%. The next meeting is 8–9 December.
What the Fed actually did
The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, voted 10–2 to hold rates steady on 28 October 2026. The benchmark federal funds rate stays at 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the Fed’s second meeting after a 0.25-point hike in September 2026, the first hike since 2023.
The Fed said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. Domestic spending is resilient. Capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate has changed little.
At the same time, the Fed said inflation remains elevated. Its target is 2%. Chair Kevin Warsh said at his press conference that the Fed’s “monetary medicine” is starting to work and that “2% is the target.” He neither promised nor ruled out a December hike. He said the coming weeks are rich in data.
That careful wording is the whole story. A hold is not a cut. A hold with two dissents for a hike is not a signal that tightening is over. It is a pause to look at more data.
Why two dissents matter
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted a 0.25-point hike at this meeting, not a hold. Cook’s dissent was her first ever, one gold-market report noted.
Dissents matter because they show the debate inside the Fed. If two officials already want higher rates, a hot inflation report before December could push more officials to their side. If inflation cools, the hold camp gains strength.
Fortune India quoted Ankita Pathak, head of global investments at Ionic Asset, as saying the hold reflected a calibrated, data-dependent approach. She added that a December hike appeared likely, in line with the September policy’s dot plot — the Fed’s own chart of officials’ rate expectations.
Do not confuse the dot plot or futures odds with a decision. Futures markets put the chance of a December hike at about 83% after the meeting, Kitco reported, and near 85% in another summary citing Bloomberg. Before the meeting, a Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expected no change in October, while all 100 expected a hike in December. Those are surveys and market bets. The Fed will decide in December, based on jobs, inflation, and spending data.
Rupee: near ₹95.19–₹95.21, and why it is weak
Sources give a narrow range, not one identical print. Morning market reports on 29 October put the rupee around ₹95.21 per dollar, and one pre-market note put it around ₹95.18. This post uses the range ₹95.19–₹95.21 and does not pretend all sources printed the same tick.
A weaker rupee has a simple chain effect. India imports oil in dollars. When the rupee falls, oil costs more in rupees. That feeds into petrol, diesel, transport, and food prices. It also raises the landed cost of imported gold in India, even when world gold prices are flat or falling.
Higher US rates pull money toward US bonds. US bond yields near 5% on the 10-year Treasury make US assets more attractive. Foreign investors may sell Indian stocks and bonds and move money to the US. That selling can weaken the rupee further and push Indian bond yields up.
On 28 October, foreign investors were net buyers of ₹871.83 crore in Indian equities, and domestic investors added ₹643.35 crore, one morning market report said. That buying cushioned the market that day. It does not remove the pressure if US rates rise again in December.
For a related view on the currency, read about the IMF saying the rupee should absorb oil shocks.
Gold: two prices, do not mix them up
Gold needs care because India has more than one gold price. World spot gold, MCX futures, MCX spot, and jeweller retail prices are different numbers.
On 29 October early trade, Comex gold was around $4,051 per ounce, NewsKarnataka reported. Moneycontrol reported spot gold near $4,056 per ounce in the early session, up 0.77%, and US gold futures at $4,075.80. Kitco put spot gold near $4,056.80 late on Wednesday, down $2.50. The small gaps reflect different times of day, not errors.
In India, MCX gold futures for December delivery settled at ₹1,43,705 per 10 grams on 28 October, down about 0.3%, NewsKarnataka reported. Moneycontrol reported MCX December futures trading at ₹1,43,573 per 10 grams at 09:04 IST on 29 October, and MCX spot gold closing Wednesday at ₹1,42,253 per 10 grams. Futures and spot are not the same contract. Do not compare a futures close to a spot close as if one is wrong.
Retail 24-carat gold in India stood at about ₹1,44,000 per 10 grams in early trade on 29 October, with 22-carat at ₹1,32,000, NewsKarnataka reported. Jeweller prices add making charges and taxes, so your bill will be higher than the futures or spot quote.
Higher crude also weighed on gold before the Fed decision. Brent crude was near $114–$115 per barrel, and WTI near $101–$102, in morning reports on 29 October. High oil lifts inflation worries. That keeps the Fed hawkish, which is a headwind for gold. At the same time, central-bank buying and geopolitical tension support gold. That tug-of-war is why gold held near $4,050 instead of falling sharply.
What it means for loans, stocks, and savers in India
For Indian borrowers, the Fed hold gives no direct relief. Indian home loan and personal loan rates follow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), not the Fed. But the Fed affects the RBI’s room. If the Fed hikes in December and crude stays above $110, one market summary said, the RBI could face pressure to hike at its own December meeting. If oil falls, that pressure eases.
For stock investors, a December hike expectation means foreign inflows may stay cautious. Domestic buying has cushioned Indian stocks so far. That cushion has limits. Sectors that import heavily — aviation, paints, chemicals, and oil marketing — face cost pressure when crude is high and the rupee is weak.
For savers, higher US yields can push Indian bond yields up. That can mean better returns on new fixed deposits and bonds over time, but it can also mean existing bond prices fall. Do not rush to buy or sell on one Fed meeting. Watch the December 8–9 meeting, the core PCE inflation report, and the October jobs and CPI data.
The cleanest way to read this Fed meeting is as a split, not a pause. Ten officials held. Two wanted a hike now. Markets read the split as “December is live.” For India, the risk is not the October hold. It is a December hike landing at the same time as $114 Brent crude and a rupee near 95. That combination hits imports, inflation, and the RBI’s choices together.
Also read: Gold rate today, Oct 28
Also read: Cyclone Arnab, October 27: what was expected
Also read: India vs NZ 3rd T20I: Abhishek 113 win
FAQ
Q: Did the US Fed cut rates on 28 October?
A: No. It kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%. It hiked by 0.25 points in September 2026, then held in October.
Q: Will the Fed definitely hike in December?
A: No. A December hike is expected by markets (about 83%–85% in futures) and by economists surveyed, but it is not decided. Inflation and jobs data before 8–9 December will decide it.
Q: Should I buy gold now because the Fed held rates?
A: This post is not investment advice. Gold held near $4,051–$4,056 per ounce, MCX December futures were near ₹1,43,573–₹1,43,705 per 10 grams, and retail prices add charges and taxes. Check a live jeweller quote and your own budget before buying, and watch the December Fed meeting.
Sources: Kitco, 28 Oct 2026; Fortune India, 29 Oct 2026; NewsKarnataka, 29 Oct 2026; Moneycontrol, 29 Oct 2026.
Pingback: Jio lists today: ₹1,119 IPO, 22x subscribed
Pingback: IMF: Rupee at 95.22 Must Absorb Oil Shock