Markets reopened after Dussehra to a 677-point Sensex jump to 74,530.57 on Trump’s ‘pretty close’ trade-deal line. Here’s what moved, and the risks today.
Updated: October 21, 2026, 10:05 AM IST
Quick Read
- The Sensex rally added 677.67 points to reach 74,530.57 in early trade; the Nifty climbed 147.90 points to 23,036.85, per TOI’s liveblog.
- The trigger: Donald Trump told reporters at the Oval Office that an India-US trade deal is “pretty close.”
- One caution: crude oil is near five-month highs at about $110 a barrel, so analysts call this a one-session bounce, not a trend reversal.
Dalal Street’s Dussehra break is over — and the Sensex rally began the moment trading resumed. The BSE benchmark gained 677.67 points, or 0.92%, to touch 74,530.57 in early trade on Wednesday, while the Nifty 50 rose 147.90 points to 23,036.85, according to TOI’s market liveblog.
The rebound came after markets sat out Tuesday for Dussehra, and it nearly wiped out Monday’s damage. Monday’s session had been ugly: the Sensex fell 876.37 points to close at 73,852.90, as private-bank stocks dragged and earnings disappointed, per Times Now.
What lit the fuse
Trump, basically. The US President told reporters at the Oval Office on Tuesday that India and the United States are close to finishing a trade deal after more than a year of talks. “They want to make a deal. We’re going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah,” he said, per both Times Now and The HinduBusinessLine. He added it would be “a much different kind of deal than we’ve done,” without saying how.
His comments landed while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in India — his second visit in under five months — and weeks after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal sat down with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee and Washington, per The HinduBusinessLine.
IT stocks led the charge. Per TOI’s liveblog, Infosys was the top Sensex gainer at +3.08%, followed by UltraTech Cement (+2.51%), TCS (+2.50%) and Reliance Industries (+2.10%). HCLTech, Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank were all up over a percent.
Also read: Sensex crashes 876 points as private banks drag
The other side of the trade
Here’s what the rally can’t fix in one day. Brent crude is sitting near five-month highs at around $110 a barrel — $110.30 in The HinduBusinessLine’s live feed — as tanker attacks and strikes on Saudi Arabia keep tensions high. TOI’s liveblog named elevated crude as the key risk to today’s gains.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, put it plainly: optimism around a trade deal could support stocks, “but a sustained recovery may prove difficult as elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment,” per The HinduBusinessLine.
The rupee offered small comfort. It opened at 94.78 per dollar, a touch stronger than Monday’s close of 94.93, per Times Now.
Why crude at $110 hurts India more than most
India buys most of its oil from other countries. So when crude climbs, the country’s oil import bill climbs with it. TOI’s liveblog laid out the chain: higher energy costs push up the import bill, strain the government’s budget and eat into company profits.
That’s the tug-of-war under today’s screen. A trade deal would be good news. Costly oil is bad news. For now, the good news is winning the morning — the bad news is still on the field.
FAQ
Why did the Sensex jump today?
Markets reopened after the Dussehra holiday, and investors reacted to Donald Trump’s comment that an India-US trade deal is “pretty close,” along with Marco Rubio’s India visit. IT stocks led the gains, per TOI’s liveblog and Times Now.
Is this the start of a new rally?
Nobody knows yet. One strong session doesn’t make a trend — crude near $110, high global bond yields and mixed company results are still weighing on sentiment, per The HinduBusinessLine’s analyst quotes.
What should investors watch next?
Q2 company results (banks and IT in focus after a mixed season so far) and any concrete wording on the trade deal. The HinduBusinessLine notes the focus is now on earnings announcements through the rest of the week.
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