US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told the Indian Express that the India-US trade deal is “weeks, not months” away, with 99% of the work already done. His message on the trip: the tariffs were never meant to punish India, and the visa curbs aren’t aimed at Indians either.
Updated: October 21, 2026, 10:05 AM IST
Quick Read
- Rubio said only “language-related” wording remains — “what certain words mean and what certain phrases mean” — before the deal can be signed.
- Tariffs are “not done to punish or harm India,” he said, linking the Russia-oil tariffs to the Ukraine war; Trump waived the 100% tariffs last week partly to protect the India deal.
- Visa curbs are “not targeted” at India, he said — and he refused to comment on Musk’s Starlink allegations against Ambani, calling Musk “a private citizen.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Mumbai on his second visit to India in under five months, told the Indian Express that the India-US trade deal is “incredibly close.” His exact words: “We are weeks, not months, away from, I think, finalising it. I think 99% of the work is done.” What’s left, he said, isn’t policy — it’s wording. “It’s basically down to what certain words mean and what certain phrases mean.”
The fine print: what “weeks not months” actually means
The February preliminary agreement already settled the big numbers. Under that accord, the US agreed to cut its country-specific reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18% and withdraw the extra 25% penalty tied to India’s imports of Russian crude oil, according to reporting from the Korea Herald’s business desk.
So the “weeks” Rubio is talking about is the legal-ink stage — turning a February handshake into a signed text. Trade deals die in drafting. Both sides have to agree on what every clause means so the deal can’t unravel later — Rubio’s own reason for not announcing it early: “you can’t afford for a relationship of this magnitude to be threatened by announcing a deal and then it turning out that the deal wasn’t finalised.”
> Also read: US-India trade deal stuck? The dairy dispute that stalled it earlier
Why he keeps saying the tariffs weren’t punishment
“None of these tariffs are done to punish or to harm India,” Rubio told the Indian Express. He said the Russia-oil tariffs were tied to pressuring Russia over Ukraine — and that Trump’s decision to hold off on the 100% tariffs last week was, in part, about India: “One of the reasons why he didn’t impose them is because he understands that it would have a very detrimental impact on a very important relationship with India.”
He was honest about the risk, though. “There’s no doubt” tariffs can put stress on economic ties, he said — which is why, in his words, “it has to be managed very carefully.” That balancing act — pressuring Moscow while protecting the India partnership — is the whole game.
The timing matters for readers at home. Trump’s Oval Office line on Tuesday — “They want to make a deal. We’re going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah” — is what sent the Sensex jumping ~678 points in Wednesday’s reopening trade.
> Also read: Sensex crashes 876 points: what the private-bank selloff meant
Visas, China, Pakistan — and the question he dodged
On immigration, Rubio said the tightening of US visa rules was a global cleanup, not an India move: “We are trying to fix 20 years of neglect of an immigration system that was simply not enforced, and that’s not targeted at India.”
Three other lines from the interview are worth knowing:
- China: A US-China trade war “would be devastating to the global economy,” and “it would impact India.”
- Pakistan: “Our relationship with no country in the world at any way comes at the expense of our relationship with India.” — the same balancing act behind Trump’s move to block Netanyahu’s Iran strike.
- Musk’s Starlink allegations against Ambani: “He owns important businesses, but he’s a private citizen, so I can’t speak to that.” A clean dodge.
Why Jamnagar was on the itinerary
Rubio’s stop at the Jamnagar refining complex wasn’t tourism. It’s the world’s largest refining complex, and his message was about energy options: India is one of the few places that can refine Venezuelan heavy crude — an alternative if the world’s oil keeps coming from conflict-prone regions. His line: “I don’t think we want to live in a world in which an overwhelming amount of the global energy comes from one part of the world that’s prone to conflict.”
What happens next
If Rubio’s timeline holds, a signature lands in November — weeks, not months. Watch two things: the drafting talks in the coming days, and the reported ~60-day window on the Russia-oil tariff waiver. The deal is 99% done. The last 1% is where trade deals usually go to die.
> Also read: India-New Zealand FTA takes effect: what changes for Indian exporters
FAQ
What does “99% done” actually mean?
It means only drafting is left, according to Rubio. The February preliminary accord already settled the tariff numbers — a cut from 25% to 18% on reciprocal duties and withdrawal of the Russian-oil penalty. What remains is agreeing on the legal text.
Were the Russia-oil tariffs aimed at India?
No — at least not according to Rubio. He said they were tied to pressuring Russia over Ukraine, and that Trump held them back last week partly because imposing them would have hurt the India relationship.
When will the deal be signed?
“Weeks, not months,” Rubio said — but he named no date. The full interview is with the Indian Express (October 21, 2026).
Sources: The Indian Express (Oct 21, 2026); NDTV Profit; The Financial Express; Firstpost; Korea Herald Business desk.
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