Lula da Silva won Brazil’s runoff with 51.79% of votes on October 26. His fourth term may deepen India-Brazil trade ties and BRICS teamwork in the months ahead.
Updated: October 27, 2026, 9:50 AM IST
Quick Read:
- Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of votes in Brazil’s runoff on October 26, 2026.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Lula and spoke of a deeper India-Brazil Strategic Partnership.
- Trade, critical minerals, pharma, and digital tech are the big areas where the two nations can work together.
Brazil has a new old president. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff vote on October 26, 2026. He took 51.79% of the votes. His rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, took 48.21%. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) gave these figures. The gap was about 4.4 million votes. That’s a clear win, but not a landslide. Brazil stays split down the middle.
This is Lula’s fourth term as president. No one else has done this in Brazil’s modern era. He also made a rare comeback. He finished second in round one, then won round two. Outlook notes this has not happened since direct elections returned in 1989. It’s a first. It shows Lula still knows how to win a tight race.
A win without a concession
Not every election produces a clear winner. See Israel election deadlock. Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded defeat, per Outlook. He has not yet accepted the result in public. That leaves a cloud over the finish. Lula’s team will still take office. But the mood in Brazil stays tense. Supporters of both sides are watching each move. The world is watching too.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi moved fast. He sent Lula his “heartiest congratulations”. He said he looks forward to working with Lula to “deepen India-Brazil Strategic Partnership”. Those are his words. The message sets the tone. India wants this win to count for both nations.
Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal went further. He called Lula’s win “a plus for India”. He said a Bolsonaro win would have weakened BRICS and the Global South. That’s his view. It tells us why Delhi is pleased. A friendly leader in Brazil helps India’s big plans.
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Trade first, then the rest
Trade is where the numbers sit. India-Brazil trade stood at $15.07 billion in 2025-26, per Outlook. That’s the main figure in this post. Other reports put 2025 trade at $15.21 billion, per News18. The two figures cover slightly different periods. We don’t merge them. Both point the same way. Trade is strong, and both sides want more.
The targets differ too, and readers should know that. Outlook reports a target of $30 billion by 2030. News18 reports a $20 billion target in five years from the July 2025 visit. These are two different targets as reported. Neither is picked silently here. Both show ambition. The gap shows how fast plans can shift.
What can India and Brazil sell each other? Four areas lead the list. Critical minerals come first. Rare earths come next. Pharma follows. Digital tech rounds it out. These are not small niches. They feed phones, cars, medicines, and clean energy. India needs steady supply. Brazil has rich reserves. That’s a natural fit.
Why BRICS chairs matter
Lula visited India on a state visit in February 2026. That trip set the tone for this year. It pushed trade talks forward. It also built trust between the two leaders. Modi and Lula have met often. They speak the same language on the Global South. Both want a louder voice for developing nations.
India chairs BRICS till the end of 2026. That chair gives Delhi a strong hand. Brazil is a key BRICS member. A Lula-led Brazil will back that agenda. A Bolsonaro-led Brazil may not have. That’s the point Sibal made. It’s why this result travels far past Brazil’s borders.
One thing to keep in mind: Lula won’t have a free run at home. Brazil’s Congress leans conservative. It will push back on big spending plans. It will slow down bold reforms. Lula will need deals and patience. His foreign policy can move faster than his home agenda. That’s normal in a split system.
Donald Trump backed Flávio Bolsonaro in this race. That fact shapes the next chapter. Lula and Trump will need a working tie. Brazil trades heavily with the United States. Lula can’t ignore Washington. He also won’t bend to it. Watch that balance in the weeks ahead.
FAQ
Q: Who won Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff? A: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won with 51.79% of votes, per Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Flávio Bolsonaro took 48.21%.
Q: Why does Lula’s win matter for India? A: India and Brazil trade over $15 billion a year, per Outlook. Both nations work together in BRICS. Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal called the win “a plus for India”.
Q: What is the trade target between India and Brazil? A: Outlook reports a $30 billion target by 2030. News18 reports a $20 billion target in five years from July 2025. Both targets are reported here as stated, not merged.
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