Donald Trump lost control of Congress, but he is still President — and he still holds most of the tariff powers. For India, that means a little more room to say no in trade talks, and a lot of uncertainty still to come.
Updated: 5 November 2026, 10:00 IST
Quick Read
- Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the 3 November midterms, per AP, The Hindu and Firstpost reports on 4 November.
- The India–US interim trade deal is still NOT signed. It was in legal drafting as of 15 October, after a framework announced on 6 February 2026 set an 18% rate.
- Trump keeps veto power and tariff powers under Sections 232 and 301, so Congress alone can’t cut tariffs. A second Section 301 probe deadline falls on 11 March 2027.
This is not a repeat of yesterday’s result story. Yesterday’s posts told you who won. This one asks a narrower question: what does a weaker Trump mean for India’s trade talks? Short answer: India gets a bit more bargaining room. Not a done deal. Not lower tariffs on their own. Just more room. Let’s start with what changed. On 3 November, American voters picked a new Congress. They did not pick a new President. Trump stays in office until January 2029. But Democrats took both chambers of Congress, according to AP results and reports in The Hindu, Firstpost and India TV on 4 November. The Free Press Journal put the Senate at 53 of 100 seats for Democrats and the House above 220 of 435 seats. The new Congress takes office in January 2027. That matters because Trump no longer has Congress behind him. Before the vote, he had the House, the Senate and the Presidency. Now, as one official source told The Hindu BusinessLine on 4 November, he may only have the Presidency left.
What BusinessLine’s experts say India gains
BusinessLine’s 4 November report, headlined "Weakened Trump may ease US pressure on India in trade talks, but uncertainty to persist", quotes that official source directly: Trump is expected to soften a bit, because he will be more keen to win friends. Countries like India, the source said, will face less pressure to do his bidding, and won’t need to work as hard to say no. Trade expert Biswajit Dhar made a similar point in the same report. Trump could no longer dictate terms from a position of political dominance, Dhar said. Congress will now look harder at his decisions. For India, the pressure point has been farm goods and market access. India has refused to open up some farm markets fully. It has said a deal must protect its farmers. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on 29 October, per Firstpost, that the interim deal is in its final stages and will fully protect farmers. No signing date has been announced. So the new reading is simple. A President who just lost Congress has less muscle to force a quick yes. India’s team can slow down, ask for better terms, and wait. But — and this is a big but — another expert warns the opposite could also happen.
The opposite warning: pressure for a quick win
Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), told The Economic Times (ET CFO, 5 November) that Trump may now push HARDER for a quick deal with India, not softer. Why? Because he needs a win to show after a bad election night. With leverage failing against Russia, China and Iran, Srivastava said, expect heightened pressure on India for a trade deal to prove American clout. Both views can be true at different moments. Trump may soften in tone and still push hard for a signed deal. That’s why BusinessLine’s headline pairs the two words: ease, but uncertainty persists. Don’t pick one expert and ignore the other. Watch what Trump actually does next.
Also read: Democrats Win US House Midterm Results
The deal that still isn’t signed
Here’s the timeline, in plain words. India and the US announced a framework for an interim deal on 6 February 2026. A framework is not a signed deal. It’s an outline both sides agree to work from. Under that outline, US tariffs on Indian goods were to fall from 50% to 18%. India, in return, would cut duties on US industrial goods and some farm goods. Then things stalled. On 15 October, Goyal said the first part of the deal had been finalised and was going through legal drafting. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said the same day it would be signed and implemented after legal vetting, with no date given. That is the last official status update this desk found. Meanwhile, the White House listed India on 3 November among countries with which Trump had "secured" trade deals, per IANS. That claim does not match the record. The February document was a framework, not a signed deal. Readers should treat the White House list as a political claim, not proof of a signature. What rate do Indian goods actually pay right now? That’s where it gets messy, and honest reporting has to say so. Firstpost, citing experts, reports the 18% rate was never actually applied. A temporary 10% surcharge followed, and a 10% Section 301 duty has applied to most Indian goods since 24 July. Section 301 is a US trade law. It lets the US President act against trade practices seen as unfair. The 10% duty here came from a forced-labour probe. So today, in round numbers: the framework says 18%, the duty in force is 10% on covered goods. Those are different numbers for different things. Don’t mix them.
Why Congress can’t just cut tariffs
Many readers ask: if Democrats now run Congress, can’t they just end the tariffs? No, not on their own. Two reasons. One, Trump can veto laws Congress passes. Overriding a veto needs a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Democrats don’t have that. Two, tariff powers sit mainly with the President under laws like Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair practices). BusinessLine and GTRI both stress this. Trump can keep using those powers without fresh approval from Congress. Democrats can still make life harder for him. They control committees. They can summon officials, demand papers, and hold hearings. They can block his nominees and spending plans. That scrutiny matters. It just doesn’t equal a tariff cut. Also, don’t assume Democrats are free-trade fans. Firstpost notes Democrats are not uniformly in favour of free trade. Support for tariffs that protect US jobs cuts across both parties, Srivastava told ET. So a Democratic Congress may question Trump’s tariffs without wanting to scrap protection altogether.
What India should watch next
Four dates and tests matter more than daily noise. First, January 2027, when the new Congress takes office. That’s when committee scrutiny starts in earnest. Second, the Manila trip later in November. Deccan Herald reported on 5 November that Trump is likely to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Quad leaders in Manila from 14 to 18 November, at the ASEAN summits. Quad means India, the US, Japan and Australia. A Modi–Trump meeting there could set the tone for the trade talks. Third, 11 March 2027. That’s the statutory deadline for a second Section 301 probe, into whether foreign governments have built up excess factory capacity. India is covered. The probe reportedly looks at steel, petrochemicals, solar modules, textiles and leather, per BusinessLine’s 22 October analysis. If it recommends new tariffs, on top of the current 10%, that would hit the trade talks hard. Fourth, the signing itself. Until India and the US actually sign the interim deal and publish its text, every claim about rates and lists is provisional. Watch for a signed text, not a social media post. India’s own test, stated by Reuters on 4 November, is worth repeating: New Delhi has said it will move only if it gets an advantage over competing exporters. In plain words, India won’t sign just to sign. It wants a better deal than Vietnam or Indonesia get.
Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | India–US framework announced; 18% rate proposed |
| 20 Feb 2026 | US Supreme Court rules the emergency-powers tariff law does not authorise the sweeping tariffs |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10% Section 301 duty takes over for most Indian goods |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Goyal: first part finalised, in legal drafting; no signing date |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Midterms: Democrats take House and Senate |
| Jan 2027 | New Congress takes office |
| 11 Mar 2027 | Section 301 excess-capacity probe deadline |
Desk arithmetic: 18% (framework rate) minus 10% (duty now in force on covered goods) = an 8-percentage-point gap.
Also read:
FAQ
Q: Did Trump lose the presidency?
A: No. The 3 November vote was for Congress only. Trump stays President. Democrats now control Congress, which takes office in January 2027.
Q: Is the India–US trade deal signed?
A: No. A framework was announced on 6 February 2026. As of 15 October it was in legal drafting. No signing date has been announced.
Q: Can the new Congress cut US tariffs on India?
A: Not on its own. Trump can veto tariff laws, and he holds wide tariff powers under Sections 232 and 301. Congress can add scrutiny and block other plans, but it can’t force a tariff cut without a veto-proof majority.
Sources
- The Hindu BusinessLine, 4 Nov 2026
- The Hindu BusinessLine / Reuters, 4 Nov 2026
- ET CFO / Economic Times, 5 Nov 2026
- Firstpost, 4 Nov 2026
- IANS, 3 Nov 2026
- The Hindu BusinessLine, 22 Oct 2026
Sasanka Sekhar Pradhan is the founder of India Presents, an India-focused news site. He covers daily box-office trackers, India news, economy explainers, sports previews and festival guides — in simple English, so readers across India can follow fast-moving stories without jargon. His focus is what a story means for the reader: the number that matters, the source behind it, and what happens next. India Presents publishes daily, with day-trackers updated as new figures come in.
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