Israel’s exit polls put Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud first as a party, but no bloc near the 61 seats needed to govern. Arab parties won a record 17-18 seats, and weeks of coalition talks now lie ahead.
Updated: October 28, 2026, 11:30 AM IST
Quick Read:
- Polls closed at 10 pm on October 27 in Israel. The three main exit polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 52-53, both short of 61.
- Likud is the largest single party, with 24-27 seats depending on the poll. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is second, with 20-23.
- Arab parties are projected to win 17-18 seats, a record, up from 10 today. Official results are due by October 30, formally published November 4.
What the exit polls say
Israel voted on October 27, and the exit polls told a clear story: no winner. The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, has 120 seats. A government needs 61. The three main television exit polls — Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 — all put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats. They put the opposition, led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, at 52 or 53 seats. Arab-led parties are projected at 17 or 18 seats. Add those up and you get 120, with nobody at 61. Revised polls later in the night tied the two main blocs closer, at about 51 seats each, News18 reported. Either way, the gap to 61 is wide. A repeat election is now a real possibility, Times Now reported. Likud’s own number is the one bright spot for Netanyahu. Channel 13 put Likud at 25 seats, Channel 12 at 24, and Kan at 25, while the pro-Netanyahu i24NEWS put it at 27. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is second, at 21-23 seats depending on the poll. So Likud is first, but Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole fell — from the 64 seats it won in 2022 to 50 now.
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The surprise: Arab parties at a record high
The biggest surprise of the night is the Arab parties: 17 or 18 seats, up from 10 today, even though they represent about a fifth of the electorate. That would be a record for them. This matters because neither main bloc can reach 61 without them — or without new alliances that break old promises. Eisenkot has ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, saying they do not meet four criteria he set. He has also said he could form a minority government if he fails to reach 61, without asking anything of the Arab factions, Haaretz reported. That leaves both sides stuck. Netanyahu cannot govern with 50 seats. Eisenkot cannot govern with 53 if he keeps his promise on the Arab parties. The Arab parties hold the balance, but neither side can easily use them.
Turnout, and what happens next
Turnout was high: 77.7 per cent of voters cast ballots, up 7.1 points from 2022 and the highest since 1999, the Central Elections Committee said. More than seven million people were eligible to vote. Exit polls are estimates, not results. The Central Elections Committee began counting through the night, with the first official batch expected around 1 am. Reuters says the final tally is expected by October 30, with results formally published on November 4. Exit polls in Israel have shifted between first projections and final counts in past elections, so seat numbers may still move by one or two. If no bloc reaches 61, Israel faces weeks of coalition talks. If talks fail, another election follows. A caretaker government would still run the country in the meantime — including decisions on security matters, which analysts flagged as the key risk of a long deadlock.
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Why this matters for India
Israel is one of India’s key defence and technology partners, and Indian readers should watch the coalition talks for that reason, not for the seat arithmetic alone. A long deadlock in Jerusalem can slow decisions on defence deals, technology cooperation and regional diplomacy — all areas where India and Israel work closely. Oil prices are the second link. Analysts warned before the vote that deadlock could keep big decisions, including on Iran, in limbo, and that the risk runs through oil prices, inflation and government borrowing costs. India imports most of its oil, so a higher oil price feeds straight into Indian petrol, diesel and food transport costs. That is the real India line in this story: a hung parliament in Jerusalem can, through oil and defence timelines, touch Indian households.
FAQ
Q: Who won Israel’s election?
A: Nobody yet. Exit polls put Netanyahu’s Likud first as a party, but his bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 52-53 — both short of the 61 needed. These are exit polls, not official results.
Q: What is the role of Arab parties?
A: Arab-led parties are projected to win 17-18 seats, a record. Neither main bloc can reach 61 without them or without breaking old promises, which makes them the kingmakers of this election.
Q: When will the official result come?
A: The final tally is expected by October 30, with results formally published on November 4, according to Reuters and the Central Elections Committee.
Sources: Times Now, Haaretz, Daily Pioneer, News18 live (exit polls, October 27-28, 2026); Central Elections Committee (turnout 77.7%); Reuters (final tally timing).
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