India got lucky on Friday night. Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving the Graham Act’s 100% tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil — a day before the duties were due to bite on October 18. The waiver has no expiry date. That’s the good news and the bad news in the same sentence: with no expiry date, Washington can switch the threat back on whenever it wants.
Updated: October 18, 2026, 10:30 AM IST
Quick Read
- Trump waived the Graham Act’s 100% tariffs on the top buyers of Russian oil late Friday, just ahead of the October 18 deadline.
- Indian refiners had already cut Russian crude purchases by a third since July; Russia’s share of India’s oil imports fell from 51% to 44% between July and August, per trade think tank GTRI.
- The relief is temporary — the waiver can be withdrawn at any time, and the US will keep monitoring India’s Russian energy purchases.
What Trump actually did
Late on Friday, October 16, the White House posted an executive order that does something unusual: it puts the tariffs of a brand-new law into effect and waives them in the same breath. The law is the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 — SRIA for short — which Trump himself signed on September 18. It gave him 30 days to impose 100% tariffs on all goods from the top five buyers of Russian crude, with the deadline landing on October 18, plus 500% tariffs on Russian goods.
Trump invoked the law’s waiver clause instead. “I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act. I have submitted to the Congress a certification that the issuance of such a waiver at this time is in the national interests of the United States,” the order said, according to a Telegraph India report published Saturday morning.
One detail worth noting: the order names no country. India gets the relief, but so does China — the other giant buyer of Russian crude. The duties would have hit the “top five importers of crude oil and natural gas that originated in the Russian Federation” if they made new Russian purchases on or after October 18. Section 4 of the same order suspends all of that at once, and the waivers stay until the President decides “further action is appropriate.”
Also read: 100% duty threat: Oct 18 tariff deadline for India
India had already started buying less Russian oil
Here is what makes the timing interesting. India didn’t wait for the deadline. Indian refiners have cut purchases of discounted Russian crude by roughly a third since July, per the petroleum ministry’s PPAC data. Yet India’s crude import bill rose 31.6% in September over August, while volumes grew only 14.2%. India bought a bit more oil and paid a lot more for it — the cheap Russian barrels were doing quiet work in the energy budget, and their shrinking share already shows in the bill.
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based trade think tank, tracks the shift more sharply. In its October 17 report, GTRI said Russia’s share of India’s oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August, with purchases moving toward the US — despite higher prices — and the UAE. Refiners are rebalancing before politics forces their hand.
For an ordinary household, less discounted crude means India pays more per barrel, and that pressure eventually reaches the pump. Petrol and diesel prices here are politically managed, not fully free — but a rising import bill makes the government’s maths harder.
Why Washington paused — and why the pause may not last
GTRI’s warning is blunt. “The waiver has no fixed expiry date, but it can be withdrawn,” the think tank said. Washington can bring the duties back and use them as leverage in the stalled India-US trade talks. The US Trade Representative will keep monitoring Russian energy purchases, so the file never really closes.
And here is the detail most coverage skipped. Under an October 9 agreement with Russia, the US itself decided to buy Russian diesel to handle domestic shortages and high fuel prices, GTRI noted. Punishing others for buying Russian energy while doing the same could expose Washington to charges of double standards. That, plus the tariff arrangement with China and the ongoing trade talks with India, may be why Trump chose the waiver over the hammer.
One more signal that this is a pause inside a negotiation: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is heading to India, with reports on Saturday saying a trade deal is near the finish line.
Also read: 2 ships sunk in 24 hrs — India’s oil bill at risk
What happens next
Two things to watch. First, how long the pause lasts — there is genuinely no answer yet, and anyone claiming certainty is guessing. The waiver order itself says the relief continues only until the President decides otherwise.
Second, whether Indian refiners restore some Russian purchases now that the immediate threat is off, or keep diversifying toward the US and UAE to stay on Washington’s good side. The first choice saves money; the second buys political safety. New Delhi will keep choosing between the two, week after week, until the trade talks produce something durable.
Also read: Trump waives 100% tariff threat on India: what it means
FAQs
What is the Graham Act?
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (SRIA), signed by Donald Trump on September 18, 2026. It lets the US president impose 100% tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas, and up to 500% duties on Russian goods, to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenue.
Does the waiver mean the tariff threat is gone?
No. The waiver suspends the duties but keeps the law alive. GTRI warns the waiver “can be withdrawn” at any time, and the US will keep watching India’s Russian energy purchases through the Trade Representative’s office.
Will petrol and diesel prices fall now?
Not directly. The waiver is about trade tariffs, not oil prices. But India’s crude import bill rose 31.6% in September even as volumes grew just 14.2%, per PPAC data — that upward pressure on fuel costs is real, and it is separate from the tariff story.
