Trump waived Graham Act sanctions in a move seen as relief for India’s energy bills and a path to a trade deal, but New Delhi has not confirmed his oil claim.
Updated: October 26, 2026, 10:15 IST
Quick Read
- Trump waived Graham Act sanctions and duties, a move read as relief for India’s energy costs.
- India is the world’s 3rd largest crude consumer and imports over 88% of its oil.
- Trump claimed India agreed to stop Russian oil; New Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied it.
US President Donald Trump has waived Graham Act sanctions and duties. The move is being read as relief for India on energy, and as a path toward a trade deal. For India, which buys nearly all its oil from abroad, any easing of pressure on energy costs matters.
But one part of the story needs care. Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil. New Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied that claim. Until India says so itself, it is Trump’s claim, not an agreed fact.
What the waiver means for India
India is the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil. It imports more than 88% of what it uses. That means world oil prices and world oil politics hit Indian fuel bills directly. When supply is tight, or when sanctions threaten suppliers, India pays more.
The Graham Act waiver removes a threat of extra sanctions and duties. In simple words, it lowers the risk that India’s energy trade gets punished. That is why analysts call it relief. It removes one extra cost hanging over the market.
See Jio IPO listing for a big Indian market debut. The waiver also opens a door to a trade deal. The US and India have been talking about trade for months. A waiver signals that Washington wants a deal, not a fight, on this file. For Indian exporters, any trade deal that lowers duties would be good news.
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Energy costs also feed into the currency picture — see what the US Fed decision means for the rupee.
Where India’s oil actually comes from
Russia is still India’s largest oil supplier, but its share is falling. Russian supplies peaked at 2.8 million barrels per day in July. That was about 53% of India’s imports. By August, the Russian share had fallen to 44%.
Other suppliers are gaining ground. The UAE now supplies 17.4% of India’s imports. Saudi Arabia supplies 14%. The mix is shifting, even before any new deal.
Data firm Kpler puts numbers on the shift. Saudi imports into India are running at 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day this month. That is the highest since November 2019. Kpler also sees Russian flows falling to 0.8 to 1 million barrels per day next month.
These numbers matter for the Trump claim. If Russian flows are already falling, and Saudi flows are already rising, then India’s import mix is changing on its own. A deal may speed that change. It is not the only cause of it.
The claim New Delhi has not confirmed
Trump’s claim is simple: India agreed to stop Russian oil. New Delhi’s response is silence. It has neither confirmed nor denied the claim. That silence is deliberate.
There is a reason for caution. India has long said it buys oil where it gets the best deal for its people. It has not accepted outside orders on who it may buy from. Confirming Trump’s claim would look like accepting such an order. Denying it would risk a fight with Washington just as trade talks move forward.
Readers should treat the claim as unconfirmed. News reports that state it as fact go too far. The honest version is this: Trump says India agreed; India has not said so.
A tense region at the same time
The waiver comes at a tense moment in the Gulf. On October 21, debris from a Houthi drone fell at the Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia. One Nepali worker and one Filipino worker were killed. One Indian worker and one Pakistani worker were injured.
After that incident, the US ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia. Oilfields are not just business assets. They are targets in a wider conflict.
For India, this is a second reason the waiver matters. Indian workers are present across Gulf oil sites. A wider conflict there would hurt Indian workers, Indian fuel supplies, and Indian trade at the same time. Calm in the Gulf is in India’s interest, whatever happens on the waiver.
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What to watch next
Three things will show whether the waiver turns into a real deal. First, does New Delhi say anything about Russian oil? A clear statement, either way, will settle the claim. Second, do US-India trade talks produce a signed text? Third, do Kpler’s flow numbers hold? If Russian flows fall to 0.8 to 1 million barrels per day next month, the import mix story will be confirmed by data, not by claims.
Until then, the fair summary is short. The waiver eases pressure. The trade door is open. The oil claim is unconfirmed. Indian fuel bills will still depend on world prices, Gulf calm, and who India actually buys from next month.
FAQs
What is the Trump Graham Act waiver?
Trump waived Graham Act sanctions and duties. The move is seen as relief for India’s energy costs and a possible path to a US-India trade deal.
Did India agree to stop buying Russian oil?
Trump claimed India agreed to stop Russian oil. New Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied that claim, so it remains unconfirmed.
How much oil does India import, and from where?
India imports over 88% of its crude oil. Russia is the largest supplier but its share fell from about 53% in July to 44% in August, while the UAE holds 17.4% and Saudi Arabia holds 14%.
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