The clock is almost out. On October 18 — two days from now — a US law called the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act requires Washington to act. It says US duties on the top importers of Russian oil and gas can go up to 100%. India is second on that buyer list. And as of this morning, nobody in Washington has said what will actually happen.
Updated: October 16, 2026, 11:45 AM IST
Quick Read
- The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed on September 18, gives the US president 30 days — until October 18 — to raise duties up to 100% on top-five buyers of Russian crude and gas. India is ranked second, per Kyiv School of Economics and CREA data cited by IANS.
- As of October 15 morning, the White House, USTR, and Treasury had published no country list, no rate, and no waiver; the Federal Register was empty.
- Mumbai’s SEEPZ jewellery units and Surat’s diamond exporters have been on extended hours since late September, rushing Christmas shipments to beat the deadline, per Economic Times.
What happens on October 18
The math is simple. The Act was signed on September 18. Section 113 gives the administration 30 days to raise import duties — that lands on October 18. The duty can go up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian crude and gas that keep buying.
A 100% duty means this: an American buyer pays double. A $1 million shipment becomes $2 million overnight. For Indian exporters selling into the US market — jewellery, diamonds, textiles, pharma — that kind of tax wall doesn’t dent sales, it stops them.
India sits at number two on the Russian crude buyer list, according to Kyiv School of Economics and CREA data cited by IANS. That puts India squarely in the crosshairs of whatever Washington announces.
Also read: Trump buys Russian diesel after punishing India
The waiver that nobody has seen
Section 115 of the Act offers an escape hatch — the president can waive the duties, but only with a written national-interest certification sent to Congress. No such certification has been made public. The Federal Register, where official US actions get published, had nothing on this as of October 15 morning.
So the situation two days out: no country list, no duty rate, no waiver. Indian exporters are planning for the worst case because Washington hasn’t given them any reason not to.
Also read: Rubio visits India next week: energy, tariffs and the Oct 18 deadline
Why exporters are already panicking
The anxiety isn’t theoretical. In Mumbai’s SEEPZ, 140 jewellery units have been working extended hours. In Surat, roughly 4,000 diamond units are rushing to finish and ship Christmas-season orders before the deadline, the Economic Times reported on September 29.
That’s three weeks of reshaped factory shifts and sleepless logistics planning — all based on a deadline that still has no official terms attached. When an exporter puts thousands of workers on overtime without knowing the final tariff number, that tells you how seriously the trade is taking this.
What to expect next
The most likely catalyst for clarity is Marco Rubio’s India visit, expected around October 17 — literally the eve of the deadline. Energy, tariffs, and the Russian oil question are all on that table. If there’s going to be a deal, a waiver, or a softening, the weekend is when it lands.
If not, October 18 opens with Indian exporters facing duties of up to 100% on US-bound goods — and no roadmap for how long they stay there.
Also read: Houthis claim direct hit on Saudi Eurofighter: oil at $104
FAQ
What is the Graham Act’s October 18 deadline?
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (signed September 18) requires the US to raise duties up to 100% within 30 days on top-five buyers of Russian crude and gas. Thirty days from September 18 is October 18.
Is India definitely being hit with the tariff?
Not confirmed. As of October 15, no country list, rate, or waiver had been published by Washington. India is ranked second among Russian crude buyers, so the risk is real — but the official terms are still unknown.
How are Indian businesses reacting?
Jewellery and diamond exporters in Mumbai’s SEEPZ and Surat have been on extended hours since late September, rushing shipments — including Christmas orders — out before the deadline, per Economic Times.
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